The tide has turned for the global economy with U.S. real GDP posting a stronger-than-expected increase in the third quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) citing Australia’s good economic performance as a reason for raising the policy rate and China recording a breathtaking 8.9% increase in third-quarter output.

So it indeed has been. As this short quote from the Executive Summary of our 2009 Annual Outlook (published in December 2008) neatly summarized, the economic recovery faces a number of secular challenges that will alter the pace and composition of growth.