U.S. Overview
"The Recovery Will Be Agonizingly Slow”
So it indeed has been. As this short quote from the Executive
Summary of our 2009 Annual Outlook (published in December 2008) neatly
summarized, the economic recovery faces a number of secular challenges
that will alter the pace and composition of growth. For many
decision-makers, the outlook for 2010 suggests continued change and
adjustment to an altered reality of more government/less private sector
contributions to growth, greater caution/less leverage for consumer
spending, greater prudence/less speculation in lending and the
importance of exports in moving the U.S. economy.
Even though our outlook for continued growth in the overall economy
would suggest a normal cycle, the underlying forces in this economy are
anything but normal. Much of the near-term gain in growth reflects
federal, not private spending; foreign buying via exports, not domestic
spending and production to rebuild inventories, not for new final
sales. These odd characteristics of our growth in the short term give
rise to questions about the sustainability of the recovery over time.
Finally, our outlook is framed, as it has been for two years, by the
character of America's evolving credit cycle. This credit cycle will
not be a repeat of the past. We are still searching for that new
balance in private and public leverage. We have not yet defined the
limits of federal fiscal and monetary support. We are unsure of
continued foreign purchases of U.S. securities and what price foreign
investors might be willing to pay.
Recovery - The Initial Push
Real final sales, our measure of underlying demand, remains subpar
in the outlook with a gain of just more than one percent in the second
half of this year and 1.4 percent in 2010 compared to 2.5 percent in
2007. This weakness primarily reflects subpar consumer spending of just
1.0 percent for next year.
Currently, federal spending, net exports and inventory rebuilding
have provided the initial push into recovery for the economy. Fiscal
stimulus dollars continue to flow freely and we estimate that federal
spending will grow 2.8 percent on average during the last half of this
year and 2.6 percent next year. Net exports are expected to add to
growth by just less than half a percent after adding one percent during
the past two years. Finally, inventory rebuilding will add nearly two
percent to growth in the second half of this year and roughly one
percent next year.
Real Final Demand, Headwinds Limit Sustainability
As evidenced by recent data on jobs, orders and vehicle sales, once
the stimulus runs its course, we are left searching for the sustainable
growth at a pace typical of the V-shaped recoveries of the past. We
find none. September's employment report highlighted the underlying
weakness in household's earned income as jobs fell, hours worked
declined and earnings growth continued to slow. Our view is that the
American consumer is unlikely to reassert her usual role as spender of
last resort and instead move forward at a more deliberate pace given
the headwinds of wealth rebuilding, more limited credit, as well as the
aging of the baby boomers. We postulate a household saving rate of
eight percent over the next two years.
Factory orders slipped in August with the biggest weakness in
transportation orders. The recovery in business equipment investment is
expected to start in the fourth quarter of this year, with strength in
technology goods.
Light vehicle sales dropped sharply to only a 6.8 million rate in
September compared to 10.2 million in August with the Cash for Clunkers
program. This suggests that the sustainable pace of household spending,
post-stimulus is far less than the optimists in the V-shaped recovery
camp hope for. This increases our caution on estimates of final demand
when other stimulus measures, such as aid to state and local
governments and the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers expire.
While we are forecasting a substantial deceleration in overall
growth, we do not expect a double dip. Overall growth is expected to
remain in positive territory throughout the forecast period thanks
mostly to continued narrowing in the trade deficit and increases in
federal government outlays. Private domestic demand should gradually
build momentum, but there are a number of hurdles that need to be
overcome before robust growth returns to the private sector.
Recent data indicate that delinquency rates are surging for prime
and subprime mortgages. What evidence do we have that attitudes have
changed? From the Senior Loan Officer Survey, we note that the net
percentage of banks tightening standards on C&I loans to large and
medium sized firms remains in the range associated with prior
recessions. For consumer loans the net percent tightening remains
higher than the last recession. Prudence appears to be evident on both
the demand and supply side of the credit markets.
Unfortunately we are only now entering the exit period for monetary
policy from its support for Treasuries and by next March from
mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities. This will be a test for
the economy, the financial markets, the Fed and the Obama
administration as well. How well will the economy adjust back to freely
traded markets and how well will policymakers, both domestic and
foreign, accept the markets' judgment? We await new data.
International Overview
Is Coordinated Policy Easing Still Appropriate?
Leaders of the G-20 countries recently agreed to "avoid any
premature withdrawal of stimulus” in order to secure a "durable
recovery.” Policy stimulus may be appropriate for many advanced
economies, which probably will experience sluggish upturns due to
further deleveraging, and we expect that most major central banks will
maintain their respective policy rates at extremely low levels through
much of next year. However, bona fide recoveries appear to be taking
hold in many parts of the developing world, and it is no longer
apparent that continued policy accommodation remains in the best
long-run economic interests of many of these countries.
Consider Brazil, for example. Although the Brazilian inflation rate
has trended lower since the end of last year, we project that it will
begin to rise again in mid-2010 as growth strengthens and commodity
prices trend higher. With budding inflationary pressures, continued
policy accommodation would not be appropriate. The Reserve Bank of
Australia recently surprised most investors by hiking its main policy
rate by 25 bps, and central banks in many developing countries will
likely begin their own tightening cycles early next year as well. We do
not mean to imply that developing countries will slam on the brakes,
thereby threatening to derail the incipient global recovery. Inflation
is generally benign at present, and there is no need for excessive
tightening. However, policy will need to become less accommodative in
many developing countries or inflation could become a major problem
again.
Policy Priorities Beginning to Shift in Some Countries
When the global economy fell off a cliff last autumn, governments in
most major economies were quick to enact stimulus programs, both
monetary and fiscal, to prevent a total worldwide collapse in economic
activity. Their efforts largely succeeded. Although the global economy
has suffered its deepest recession in decades, a catastrophe (i.e.,
another Great Depression) was averted. Indeed, recent monthly
indicators suggest that a tentative global recovery is starting to take
hold.
The leaders of the G-20 nations met recently in Pittsburgh and
congratulated themselves on a job well done. They also pledged to
"avoid any premature withdrawal of stimulus” in order to secure a
"durable recovery.” It will be interesting to see whether that
commitment actually remains in place in the quarters ahead. When the
global economy is teetering at the precipice, it is relatively easy to
get leaders to agree that stimulus is needed. Now that the immediate
crisis has passed and policy priorities are starting to diverge
somewhat, achieving consensus may be more difficult.
The group of countries most likely to require continued
macroeconomic stimulus is the western economies. Financial systems in
many western economies became very leveraged earlier this decade, and
economic growth could continue to be held back by continued
deleveraging. Although the worst is probably over for the Euro-zone, we
project that real GDP growth in continental Europe will remain
lackluster throughout most of next year (see the chart on the front
page). Both the U.S. and U.K. economies will likely grow at a sluggish
pace next year also. If stimulus is withdrawn prematurely, these
economies could conceivably roll back into recession. (A "double dip”
recession is not our forecast, however.)
In contrast, bona fide recoveries appear to be underway in many
developing economies. (The major exception to this statement would be
Eastern Europe, which was very highly geared and which subsequently
plunged into deep recession.) For example, Chinese industrial
production has returned to double-digit growth rates recently (see
below). Although the emerging world surely would experience a renewed
slowdown if a number of major economies were to slide back into
recession, continued stimulus may no longer be appropriate for many
developing economies. Addressing inflation could become a policy
priority again for some of these countries.
Take Brazil, for example. The overall rate of CPI inflation in
Brazil has trended lower since the end of 2008, and it likely will
drift lower over the next few months. However, we project that it will
begin to pick up again by mid-2010 as Brazilian economic growth
strengthens and as commodity prices continue to grind higher. Will
Brazilian authorities continue to sanction further stimulus if
inflation threatens to head higher? Probably not. Some analysts look
for the Brazilian central bank to hike rates early next year, and
central banks in some other large developing countries probably will
follow suit as well.
As recently shown by Australia, an advanced economy that is also a
G-20 member, rate hikes in some countries could begin fairly soon. The
Reserve Rank of Australia surprised most investors on October 6 when it
lifted its main policy rate by 25 basis points. The Australian economy
escaped relatively unscathed from last autumn's global financial
crisis, and recoveries in many of the country's major trading partners
in Asia will continue to boost the country's exports.
We do not mean to imply that developing countries will slam on the
brakes, thereby threatening to derail the incipient global recovery.
Inflation is generally benign at present, and there is no need for
excessive tightening. Very low interest rates may no longer be
appropriate in many parts of the developing world, and central banks in
these countries likely will begin to withdraw excess stimulus well in
order to ensure that inflation does not become a major problem again.
As rates rise, central banks in these countries likely will resist some
of the upward pressure on their currencies via exchange market
intervention.
Wachovia Corporation
http://www.wachovia.com
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