The US dollar rallied through the Asian and European session hours
Tuesday as the scent of fear wafted through the market. Speculative
interests were put on the defensive starting in the early hours of the
new trading session after a Japanese airline filed for bankruptcy
protection in the nation’s fourth largest failure in history.
• US Dollar Rally Stunted by New Highs for the Dow, A Rough Start for Q4 Earnings
• British Pound Rallies as Inflation Sparks Long-Lost Interest Rate Speculation
• Euro: Investor Sentiment Turns Sour as the Health of the Euro Zone Economy Comes into Question
US Dollar Rally Stunted by New Highs for the Dow, A Rough Start for Q4 Earnings
The US dollar rallied through the Asian and European session hours
Tuesday as the scent of fear wafted through the market. Speculative
interests were put on the defensive starting in the early hours of the
new trading session after a Japanese airline filed for bankruptcy
protection in the nation’s fourth largest failure in history. Heading
into London and Frankfurt hours, a survey of European investor
sentiment reflected confidence among speculators was not as robust as
many had expected with the global economy’s still young recovery.
Finally, adding to bearish sentiment just before US markets came
online, Citigroup reported a hearty $7.6 billion loss for the fourth
quarter. All told, these unfavorable events would bolster the appeal of
the save haven dollar long enough to push the currency to the verge of
a meaningful breakout before risk appetite eventually stabilized. When
New York liquidity descended on the market, traders would find their
bearings and reverse their bearish position – subsequently preventing
the greenback from taking the final step towards a meaningful breakout
and potential trend. Reflecting how close the dollar would come to
developing a trend, EURUSD would break the bottom of its month-long
rising trend channel before stalling at a 200-day moving average and
range low.
Outside the flippant nature of risk appetite, US-based fundamentals
were a mixed bag. The disappointing earnings numbers for Citigroup –
the world’s largest bank – held its obvious implications for investor
sentiment. However, looking beyond the tone this sets for the fourth
quarter earnings season, this accounting data in particular is evidence
of the impact that the withdrawal of government aid and stimulus can
have on the markets. Much of the quarter’s losses can be assigned to
the approximately $6 billion in expenses to repay the US government for
its bailout. What’s more, looking beyond the costs to banks; the roll
back of the market’s safety net will no doubt dampen confidence, weigh
on liquidity and perhaps even reduce credit availability as lenders
become more conscious of their exposure. Looking at tomorrow’s
listings, Bank of American, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and US Bancorp
are all scheduled to release their fourth quarter numbers. This round
along with Thursday’s hearty list represents the height of the earnings
season for the financial sector.
Turning to macro data, the November TICS data showed global demand led
to a net $126.8 billion purchase of US equities, notes and bonds.
Interest in government debt was particularly robust with buying private
investors buying a record $87.1 billion of the low-yield, safe haven
Treasuries. However, this is not a trend that is likely to subsist
through the long-term. Efforts to diversify reserves away from the US
dollar are gaining momentum. And, those leading the charge say the
value of the US dollar and its assets is eroded by the government
selling record amounts of debt and printing money to fill its deficit.
On deck for Wednesday, earnings reports will be mixed with
factory-level inflation figures and construction data. Upstream price
pressures and the stability of the housing market can certainly weigh
on interest rate speculation.
Related: Discuss the US Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, US Dollar Forecast Calls For Breakout
British Pound Rallies as Inflation Sparks Long-Lost Interest Rate Speculation
The British pound managed an impressive rally Tuesday after the Office
for National Statistics released its most recent inflation statistics.
Expectations were already inflated with the forecast consensus
projecting a 0.3 percent increase through the month of December which
would contribute to a 2.6 percent annual pace of growth. What the
market received through the actual numbers though was a 0.6 percent
pickup through the month and a 2.9 percent rate for the year. The
increase in the year-over-year measurement was the largest on records
going back to 1997 and more importantly sets price pressures well above
the Bank of England’s target 2.0 percent target. In fact, should price
pressures cross the three-percent threshold, the central bank will have
to produce a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining why
inflation is so high and what will be done to return it to normal
levels. What can be done? The market has taken this news to mean the
BoE’s plans to return to a hawkish monetary policy will have to be
moved up. Indeed, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps show the market
bumped up the outlook for rate hikes over the coming 12 months by 14
basis points to 85 bps. The argument has been made that this is a
temporary impact through high fuel prices and BoE Governor Mervyn King
said after the report that an "undesirably low” money supply will
return inflation to target. However, the core CPI reading hit a 2.8
percent rate of its own and the money supply could easily reverse
course on the abundance of stimulus in the economy.
Perhaps the economic outlook proffered by the tomorrow’s jobless claims
figures or the assessment of the country’s future in the BoE minutes
will help clarify the situation – or at least speculators’
expectations. According to forecasts, the economy is expected to
reported its second monthly drop in unemployment – the first
back-to-back decline since the January and February of 2008. While this
is far from putting the economy on a solid footing (the jobless rate is
still near a 14-year high); it is a clear step in the right direction
for a currency still under the weight of negative forecasts.
Related: Discuss the British Pound in the DailyFX Forum, British Pound at Risk With BoE Minutes And CPI Ahead
Euro: Investor Sentiment Turns Sour as the Health of the Euro Zone Economy Comes into Question
Whereas the pound was up across the board through the virtue of its
economic data, the euro would be weighed by its own economic docket.
Not only does the currency stand to lose the most when the US dollar
advances (as it is the primary alternative for those market
participants looking for a reserve alternative); but the Euro Zone has
seen structural problems of its own develop recently. With the focus on
Greece and its unsustainable deficit, investors have clearly grown
worried over the stability of the collective economy and its financial
health. The German ZEW market professional survey for January revealed
the consensus forecast for regional economic activity dipped below the
important 50 level (anything below this level reflects net pessimism
among those polled). The issue and concerns will likely worsen before
they improve.
Related: Discuss the Euro in the DailyFX Forum, Euro Struggling to Maintain its Range as Greek, Dollar Troubles Loom
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Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
E-mail: jkicklighter@dailyfx.com
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