OVERVIEW – Not a lot
to report on Thursday with the anemic regional economic calendar
leaving the markets to trade off of broader global macro fundamentals.
As to be expected, the regional currencies continue to move in sync
with risk appetite, and have recovered mildly over the past 24 hours.
The overall negative risk impact of the China reserve requirement
change has now warn off, with the markets once again finding themselves
and rallying back to pre-China news levels. Nevertheless, there is some
room for concern in the local currencies with the Dubai story coming
back into focus after a UK Times report said that Dubai World was
trying to keep banks in waiting with a formal 6-month standstill on its
$22B in debts. With the economic calendar once again empty, all eyes
will turn to the ECB interest rate reaction, and US retail sales.
Eur/Sek pullbacks should be well propped in the 10.15
area with the market in the process of carving a meaningful base on the
daily chart. The market has been in the process of carving out a series
of higher lows and higher highs and we look for a fresh higher low at
current levels ahead of the next upside extension towards 10.60-70
further up. Back above 10.25 will however be required to get things
going, while a break back below 10.10 is concerning.
Eur/Nok has come back under pressure over the
past several days with the market trading down to a 12+ month year low
below 8.20. However, despite the weakness on the cross, we are not
convinced of these moves and continue to see value at current levels
with the market more likely to bounce from here rather than to continue
to drop. Daily studies confirm with the RSI now dipping back into
oversold territory. Tuesday’s strong bullish reversal day helps to
Usd/Sek our view is highly constructive at current
levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks. We
contend the market is attempting to carve out a major base rather than
in the process of some bearish consolidation. The recent break back
above 7.20 confirms bias and exposes 7.50-60 further up. Any setbacks
are expected to be well supported ahead of 7.00.
Usd/Nok has retraced since triggering a major double
bottom. However, our core bias is still highly constructive and we look
for any dips to be well supported in the 5.65-70 area. Look for a
higher low to carve out ahead of the next upside extension beyond 5.90
over the coming days.
Gbp/Nok recovery rally has pulled back since reaching
9.53 in the previous weeks, but our outlook remains constructive, and a
higher low is now sought out above 9.00, ahead of the next upside
extension beyond 9.53.
Nok/Jpy has been well confined to a very choppy range
trade over the past several weeks, largely defined between 15.00 and
16.50. Pullbacks have once again been well supported in the 15.00 area
ahead of the latest bounce back into the upper range. From here, we
recommend continuing to play the range high-lows.
Read more: DailyFX - Scandi Daily 01.14 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/scandi_daily/2010-01-14-0633-Scandi_Daily_01_14.html#ixzz0cZsVFEjw