H4 graph
The gold is on the way up, and it is supposed to reach the
local target – resistance level 1025 (“K” trend line, see weekly
graph). After having a rest at the higher bound of broken “B-B+” daily
uptrend, the gold started some consolidation (a figure of trend
continuation is being formed). In case the gold rises above level 1004,
the up-trending momentum will gain strength again. Support is found at
level 990. Otherwise, if the market drops below level 986, it will get
to support 974 (the higher bound of the “triangle” figure) and the
correction will endure. But if the gold succeeds going under level 969,
the uptrend will be lost and soon replaced with a downtrend, which will
has the dropping target set to level 948.
Daily graph (from 09.06.09)
The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z”
weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This
level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market
for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle”
figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in
favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024
(“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of
downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even
to 940.
That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1.
Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving
towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to
hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z”
trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support
974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for
continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if
the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.
Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)
The gold rose above level 977 (above the higher bound of
“triangle” figure), which speaks that the market is supposed to
approach target level 1115 soon. There is a resistance on the way up,
level 1024 (“K” trend line), which the market will need to pass. So,
while we’re trading under 1024, there is a probability of drop to level
990–977. If the gold eventually rises above 1024, there will be no
obstacles on the way to 1115.
Alternatively, in case the gold drops below level 940 (breaks the “C” trend line), it will get to level 863.
