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Main » Articles » Forecast

EUR/USD forecast
H4 graph
   The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.
 
   If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).
 

eur usd forex forecast
 
Daily graph (from 09.06.09)
   The pair is trading along the “C-C+” weekly sideways trend between key levels 1.4500 (resistance) and 1.3900 (support). The trend is formed at crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. Looking into the “D-D+” trend, the pair is still trading along an uptrend. Level 1.4175 is crossed by the lower bound of the “flag” figure formed by “C2-C+” trend lines, which provides a temporary support.
 
   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.
 
 
eur usd forex forecast
 
Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)
   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.
 
   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.
 
eur usd forex forecast
 
Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)
   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
  
   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
  
   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).
 
eur usd forex forecast
Category: Forecast | Added by: forex-market (2009-09-30)
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