H4 graph
The pair is trading along the
uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend
line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set
to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that
after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound
of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the
pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.
If any correction happens, the
pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth
towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below
level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local
dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).
Daily graph (from 09.06.09)
The pair is trading along the
“C-C+” weekly sideways trend between key levels 1.4500 (resistance) and
1.3900 (support). The trend is formed at crossing of monthly and weekly
trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z”
(weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an
opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise
above them to resistance level 1.4935. Looking into the “D-D+” trend,
the pair is still trading along an uptrend. Level 1.4175 is crossed by
the lower bound of the “flag” figure formed by “C2-C+” trend lines,
which provides a temporary support.
Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1.
In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance
1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2.
In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support
1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900
(quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support
1.3285.
Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)
The pair is trading within the
“D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend
lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly
trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an
opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise
above them to resistance level 1.4935.
Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen: 1.
In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance
1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed. 2.
In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support
1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900
(quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support
1.3285.
Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)
Strategically, the graph shows
that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level
1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+”
uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But
there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is
unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on
weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to
1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing
figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which
would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same
“flag” figure).
Above the level 1.4720 is an
accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are
examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum
1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935,
off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is
meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting
point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will
develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level
1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been
executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q”
trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there
to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
I would like to note that the
feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders”
trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t
see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair
goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for
multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is
better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the
right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).
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