| by Ralph Shell ForexRazor
EUR/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas 
Friday's worries receded as the CITI Group found a bridge load to avoid
bankruptcy, sending timid investors back to the buy side of equities.
The MCI World Index was up a respectable 0.9% overnight. The EUR took
out last week's high, triggering stops, and is currently trading at
1.4232. The June 3rd high of 1.4338 is the next challenge for the
bulls. The German PPI was anounced this morning and came in at -0.1
percent versus a forecast of +0.5%. and down 4.6% on the year. This
shows a lack of pricing power by German products. The strengthened Euro
will make the resumption of German exports more difficult, but for the
moment this is of no concern for the Euro buyers. Since the trend is
obviously higher, scalpers can try the long side of dips, however a
trade under 1.4150 might change the trend.
Bias: Higher Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.4150 1.4060 1.3980 Resistance: 1.4260 1.4350 1.4490
GBP/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas   
After
a modest retreat from the high last week, the pound started higher
today trading up to 1.6550, but has since sold off to 1.6490. There is
not a lot of news to propel the pound higher. It was reported the
asking price of UK homes increased by 0.6% last month. Another report
said the UK money supply contracted 0.2% last month, but neither are
market movers. Perhaps a clue to the strength of the pound can be found
in a line from and old Roger Miller song, "England swings like a
pendulum do." Living conditions and opportunities in London are much
more appealing than most Mid East cities, so the money flows into the
UK. So far the pound has shrugged off last week's IMF report that
expressed concern about the UK's debt burden. Maybe VP Joe Biden's
advise, who says we have to keep spending to avoid bankruptcy, has
crossed the Atlantic. The market acts like the Monday morning strength
should be sold with a tight stop but I am not quite sure where to get
involved.
Bias: Lower Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.6410 1.6280 1.6190 Resistance: 1.6520 1.6590 1.6640
USD/JPY Commentary and Trade Ideas
The
futures COT report from the latest period reveals speculators continued
to be massive buyers of the yen again last week. The recent run up in
the dollar versus the yen during the past 7 days has hurt the spec
positions. Could the long yen position be a hedge against a long equity
position. Any sharp contraction in equity valuations would sent the yen
higher as traders would move away from risk. The pair has moved back up
after trading briefly under the 92 handle. There will come a point
where this rally stalls, so let's try to sell this pair if it trades at
95.30 with a 100 point stop. The target for the trade would be a sell
off down into the 93 area.
Bias: Higher Bias Term: Medium Support: 94.20 93.20 92.50 Resistance: 94.80 95.70 96.40
USD/CHF Commentary and Trade Ideas
This
pair took out the old resistance at 1.07 and after trading as low as
1.0650 is nor at 1.0690. It is always questionable where strength in
the franc will attract the attention of the SNB. The low on June 24,
the day the SNB aggressively sold the franc and bought EUROS and
Dollars was 1.0647. Will history repeat? Try the long side of the USD
franc in the 1,0650 area with appropriate money management stop and see
if we get a bounce.
Bias: Higher Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.0650 1.0600 1.0500 Resistance: 1.0730 1.0820 1.0890
USD/CAD Commentary and Trade Ideas
A
report this morning shwed that 18.89 Billion CAD's was invest in
Canadian Equities in the latest reporting month. This oil and mineral
rich country continues to receive global funds which certainly helps
the CAD. Higher oil, gold and equities also helped the CAD this
morning. After trading at 1.1019 bounced to a high of 1.1094 and is
now trading at 1.1053. The CAD was the quite firm this past week, but
the rate of appreciation has slowed, making us think that a retrace
back to the vicinity of 1.13 might happen. This is a counter trend
trade so keep stops close.
Bias: Higher Bias Term: Medium Support: 1.1020 1.0940 1.0820 Resistance: 1.1120 1.1220 1.13 AUD/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas 
Better
attitude toward equities this morning carried the AUD higher this
morning higher and we are currently trading at .8140. This pair has
traded here numerous previous times and generally stalls above .81.
Last month the Central banker was also a seller of AUD's on a rally, so
we really question this market's ability to move substantially higher
from here. We will watch developments for a trading opportunity.
Bias: Neutral Bias Term: Medium Support: .7969 .7850 .7670 Resistance: .8140 .8220 .8300
NZD/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas
Global
equity strength has assisted the value of the Kiwi this morning and we
are currently trading at .6540. We are back in an area where the market
has stalled before, and are not inclined to be buyers at this level.
Bias: Higher Bias Term: Medium Support: .6510 .6420 .6300 Resistance: .6560 .6700 .6770
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