Deflation
threats are still surrounding the British economy since the start of
the global downturn last year where the economic recession along with
the slid in oil prices caused the general price level to decline
noticeably, reaching levels below the target set by the Bank of England
(BoE) to maintain price stability. In spite of the improvement
witnessed in the previous period, more specifically, the second quarter
of the current year, deflation remains the main risk that may derail
recovery.
Activities
slowed down the most in the first quarter this year as a result of the
slump in consumer spending which in turn prompted firms to slash
production and terminate jobs to deal with the economic downfall. The
economy contracted the most since 1958 with 2.4% from January to March
31 due to the global slowdown which hit all sectors of the economy. Unemployment rate soared to 7.2% with 2.26 million looking for job vacancies, the highest level since November 1996.
Inflation
rate has reached its lowest since the beginning of last year. However,
CPI released in May showed improvement coming in at 0.6%, higher than
both predicted and previous readings of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. RPI for the same month also advanced to 0.6%, higher than both prior and estimated readings of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
In
May, PPI input came in at 0.4%, lower than the revised prior of 1.7%
from -1.0%, while PPI output non seasonally adjusted came lower than
the revised of 0.7% from 0.6%.
Today, U.K.
released its PPI input for June coming in at 1.5%, higher than the
revised prior reading of 1.1% from 0.4% and better than the estimated
0.8%, on the year, the reading slipped to -11.5% from the revised
reading of -8.6% from -9.4% which is higher than the expected -12.9%. The
monthly reading inclined as a result of the surge in crude prices which
jumped 14.3%, touching its highest this year above $73 a barrel.
Moreover, PPI
output came in at -0.2%, worse than both the predicted and preceding
readings of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, whereas the year reading
recoiled to -1.2%, worse than the previous 0.4% and market expectations
of -0.8%. Factory gate prices dropped unexpectedly dragging the monthly
and yearly reading to the downside.
Also,
PPI output core, which does not include food and energy prices, was
released coming in at -0.8%, higher than both the expected and previous
readings of 0.2%, while the year ending June came in at 0.1%, lower
than the expected and previous readings of 1.1% and 1.2% respectively.
Mervyn
King and his economic team raised inflation estimates to be near 0.4%
by the end of the current year before rising to 1.5% at the end of next
year. The rate is expected to remain below the target in the medium and
long term due to the slow recovery paces the economy is undertaking.
The
financial sector is still suffering; Darling, the British finance
minister, talked about putting stricter restrictions on the financial
sector and allowing clients to be
aware of what is happening with banks. Darling promised to have more
competition in the financial system through allowing non-banking
institutions to confer services to Britons.
Yesterday,
policy makers at the Bank of England left their benchmark interest rate
at its historical low of 0.5%. They also intend to end the plan of
buying bonds worth 125 billion pound this month, and they will review
what happened so far and their inflation estimates during their next
meeting in August. A
112,055 billion pounds are spent till July 9. The bank will wait and
see the market reaction to decide whether the economy is in a need of
another stimulus or not.
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