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What is the eurozone growth potential?
by UniCredit Research UniCredit Group
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The G-8 meeting hosted in Italy has, unfortunately, evidenced again
divides on stimulus measures and on possible exit strategies to be
implemented once the crisis is over. Especially, disagreement among
European countries is particularly worrisome: further lack of
coordination on exit strategies would be particularly harmful and may
sow the seeds of future imbalances and of a sizeable drop in eurozone
potential growth. -
Evidence that the eurozone supply-side of the economy has strongly
deteriorated in response to the crisis suggests a possible decline in
potential growth. Recently-published numbers by the European Commission
go so far as to estimate a plunge in growth potential to only 0.7% for
2009-2010. Taking stock of the significant degree of uncertainty that
surrounds any estimate and usually-large ex-post revisions, we carry
out a scenario analysis by adjusting our survey-based Taylor rule to
different assumptions on the potential growth rate. Finally, we
identify some indicators, available in a more timely fashion, which
could help us spot virtually in real time a possible decrease in the
potential growth rate. -
The credit outlook is the main threat that may yet turn the scant
recovery we expect into a worst-case credit crunch nightmare. We
anticipated with a good lead the ongoing credit downturn, but we remain
constructive on perspectives. True, lending to both households and
non-financials will slow down further and negative growth rates for
loans to private sector may soon become reality. However, ECB’s efforts
have been huge; they will prove to be successful on short-term lending
and are only just starting to target long-term credit. The recent step
up in moral suasion on banks to pass on credit to the real economy is
certainly a sign of worry but also an indication that in Frankfurt
everything will be done to avoid a credit crunch. -
In the meantime, inflation has turned negative, it will stay
negative until September, and promises to remain well below 2%
throughout the forecast horizon (thanks to plunging core prices). We
take a look at price expectations as they are measured in the EC survey
and find that while selling price expectations have bottomed,
consumers’ expectations have not. This doesn’t imply any genuine
deflationary signal, but doesn’t bode well for private consumption in
the short run. -
Looking at the curve, yields should remain in trading range,
displaying a lot of volatility as mood swings back and forth from
optimism to pessimism. With no rate hikes in sight and decreasing Libor
fixings, we see value in 3M futures (GBP especially) with delivery
Jun/Sep10. -
In the FX space, we find that the recent debate over the decline of
the USD leadership as global reserve unit is a bit exaggerated. This
may offer “noise traders” an excuse to amplify EUR-USD volatility, but
neither the euro, nor the renminbi nor the IMF’s SDR will challenge the
USD supremacy in the foreseeable future.
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Category: Currency trading | Added by: forex-market (2009-07-09)
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Views: 347
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