Friday, 2022-09-30, 3:20 PM
Forex-market
Welcome Guest | RSS
Site menu
Catalog categories
Brokers [2]
Software [14]
Forex for Beginners [86]
Trading Strategy [55]
Trading Systems [10]
Forex Psychology [15]
Forex Signals [11]
Currency trading [50]
Forecast [39]
Funny Forex [2]
Technical Analysis [84]
Other [5]
Forex Technical and Fundamental Forecasts for October 2009 [7]
Forex Technical and Fundamental Forecasts for November 2009 [2]
Scandi daily [20]
FOREX FORECAST 2010 [6]
Main » Articles » Forecast

US Dollar Forecast Bearish Against Euro, Japanese Yen
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

-EURUSD – Euro Sentiment Forecasts Further EUR Strength
-USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast Aggressively Bullish Against US Dollar
-GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Unclear on Sharp Sentiment Shifts
-USDCHF – Swiss Franc Expected to Rally Further Versus US Dollar
-USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Against US Dollar

The SSI sought a EURUSD rally since 1.26 and was signaling a reversal around 1.60.

06-18-09-SSI-01

Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning
06-18-09-SSI-02

EURUSD – Our sentiment-based forex trading signals remain long the Euro against the US Dollar, as increasingly one-sided crowd sentiment points to further gains. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 16.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.1% stronger than yesterday and 117.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

06-18-09-SSI-03

GBPUSD –A sentiment-based forex trading strategy remains short the British Pound against the US Dollar, but increasingly indecisive swings in positioning make our SSI-based bias unclear. The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.3% higher than yesterday and 25.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.7% lower than yesterday and 18.4% weaker since last week. Forex crowds remain net-short the GBPUSD—normally a contrarian signal to buy into further rallies. Yet the recent jump in long positions suggests that tides are turning, and we maintain a fairly bearish sentiment-based GBPUSD bias.

06-18-09-SSI-04

USDJPY – Forex trading crowds remain extremely net-long the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, and our contrarian forex trading signals are accordingly aggressively short the USDJPY. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.98 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.05 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 32.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 13.7% weaker since last week. Sentiment remains roughly unchanged from yesterday, but the continued surge in long positions signals that the market remains oversaturated with USDJPY bulls. Typically this coincides with noteworthy declines in a given currency pair.

06-18-09-SSI-05

USDCHF – Our sentiment-based forex trading strategies remain aggressively short the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc, as trading crowds remain extremely long the USDCHF. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.06 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.24 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 8.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.4% higher than yesterday and 11.5% stronger since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

06-18-09-SSI-06

USDCAD – Our forex trading strategies are modestly short the US Dollar against the Canadian dollar on contrarian market sentiment. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.34 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.42 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 1.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 0.3% weaker since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

How do we interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.
http://www.dailyfx.com
Category: Forecast | Added by: forex-market (2009-06-18)
Views: 384
Total comments: 0
Only registered users can add comments.
[ Registration | Login ]
FOREX SEARCH
Custom Search
Login form
Search
Site friends
Statistics
Copyright MyCorp © 2022