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Main » Articles » Forecast

USDJPY

Morning all. Hope you are well. Nobody mention the football, unless you are Spanish of course. Changed the charts, hope they look better. I think so.

EURGBP we broke through 8700 and had a good down yesterday (100+ pips) We have yet to break the previous low at 8638.

GBPUSD we had a doji form yesterday (possible reversal) on the daily chart as we pulled off that upper trend line. We are around 161.8% extension of the move up (Daily). We have broken the first trend line on the hourly chart. Look to smaller timeframes to confirm the correction.

chart 1

Daily

USDJPY fell aggressively from 15th August 2008 at 11070 area to lows at 87100 where we formed a double bottom. Here we had class B divergence (B) We see the chart making the same lows but the oscillators making higher lows. We then retraced nearly 61.8% of the move lower. At the peak we had class A divergence (chart making higher highs while the oscillators make lower highs) We have since pulled lower in 3 waves but were unable to break the previous low at 9354. We are trading under the trend lines on the MACD and Momentum. The moving averages are mixed and we are sitting on the 20 SMA.

chart 2

4Hour

We moved to a low of 93.84 where we met small divergence. We have since moved higher with the Moving Averages ‘in order’ to buy. We have pushed outside the Bollinger Band and pushed through the 20 SMA on the daily chart at 96.62 and the previous high at 96.71.

chart 3

1Hour

Everything looks bullish. MA’s are in buy order, Momentum is high and we have no divergence.

Conclusion

Long Term View: If we can close above the 20 SMA then the view is starting to look bullish. We would the look for a break through the trend lines on the oscillators.

Short Term View: Nothing to suggest a pullback apart from the fact we are outside the Bollinger Band on the 4 hour chart. We may see a small correction but the view is bullish.

by Ian G ColemanFXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team
Category: Forecast | Added by: forex-market (2009-05-28)
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Total comments: 0
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