How promising is the outlook for growth and expected returns? This
is a critical question that has perhaps been glossed over, or in some
instances utterly ignored, over the past six months. However, now that
the world’s economy seems to be hitting its stride in the burgeoning
recovery; investors are seeing the tempo that the markets can be
expected to run more clearly. And, after eight months of solid rally
for even the most suspect of assets, it seems investors are ready to
take a hard look at current values and measure them up to where
conditions will be three, six, twelve months down the road.
• Reality Setting in as Growth, Interest Rate Forecasts Stall Carry and Stock Rallies
• Are the Global Financial Markets Heading into Another Asset Bubble?
• The Lines of Funding Currency and Carry Currency Begin to Blur as Speculation Levels Off
How promising is the outlook for growth and expected returns? This
is a critical question that has perhaps been glossed over, or in some
instances utterly ignored, over the past six months. However, now that
the world’s economy seems to be hitting its stride in the burgeoning
recovery; investors are seeing the tempo that the markets can be
expected to run more clearly. And, after eight months of solid rally
for even the most suspect of assets, it seems investors are ready to
take a hard look at current values and measure them up to where
conditions will be three, six, twelve months down the road. We can
already see a sense of hesitation across the major asset classes. The
Carry Trade and US dollar are ideal gauges of risk appetite for
currencies – if not the financial markets as a whole. The carry trade
index has carved out another swing high, but the peak for November is
notably lower than the 14-month high set back in October. Forced into a
position of greater fundamental sensitive to underlying sentiment, the
US dollar could signal a reversal (or revival) of capital market’s bull
trend far earlier than the less responsive carry basket. On a
trade-weighted basis, the US dollar is hovering just off 15-month lows;
but the foundation for its bearish trend is just as close and a
reversal can easily feed an oversold scenario. The same general
conditions can be applied to stocks and commodities like gold. While
the Dow has edge higher these past few weeks, volume has grown
progressively weaker – denoting a lack of conviction. Gold is perhaps
the most onerous of the speculative assets. Considered a high-return
vehicle, inflation hedge and safe haven alternative; this commodity is
just as prone to a correction in sentiment as any other security while
inflation is certainly far off and volatility of this level offers
little stability.
From the fundamental side of things, the argument for moderation and
caution continue to grow. While the Organization of Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) upgraded its growth forecasts for
2010 recently, the resultant outlook does not reflect the boom years of
bygone years; rather, it reflects uneven and fragile expansion that is
still heavily backed by government stimulus. The removal of this
‘safety net’ is a necessity to working down record deficits and
encouraging stability as well as long-term growth. However, it is also
the backstop to any financial crises that may develop going forward
and the primary source of cheap lending. Both of these conditions are
integral to feeding optimism. Policy official around the world have
already voiced their concern over the side effects of nearly unlimited
levels of cheap cash. The chorus out of China for an quickly building
asset bubble has shown what can happen at the extremes of the current
policy stance. In fact, a range of Asian economies have voiced their
concern that the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping its benchmark
lending rate at its extreme low is actually feeding the building
problem. San Francisco Fed President Yellen addressed this concern in a
recent speech; but she said it was not clear whether the central bank
should focus on global concerns like this when determining policy.
Realistically, the problem lies not with the policy authority’s policy
but in the market situation that it exists in. Policy makers have
warned for months that truly promoting stability means correcting large
imbalances in the global economy. Among the largest inequities are the
dollar’s use as a reserve; the yuan’s managed exchange rate; and the
abundance of leverage.
Is Carry Trade and risk appetite rising or falling? Discuss the market sentiment and how to trade it in the DailyFX Forum
Risk Indicators: |
Definitions: |
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What is the DailyFX Volatility Index:
The DailyFX Volatility Index measures the general level of volatility
in the currency market. The index is a composite of the implied
volatility in options underlying a basket of currencies. Our basket is
equally weighed and composed of some of the most liquid currency pairs
in the Foreign exchange market.
In reading this graph, whenever the DailyFX Volatility Index rises, it
suggests traders expect the currency market to be more active in the
coming days and weeks. Since carry trades underperform when volatility
is high (due to the threat of capital losses that may overwhelm carry
income), a rise in volatility is unfavorable for the strategy. |
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What are Risk Reversals:
Risk reversals are the difference in volatility between similar (in
expiration and relative strike levels) FX calls and put options. The
measurement is calculated by finding the difference between the implied
volatility of a call with a 25 Delta and a put with a 25 Delta. When
Risk Reversals are skewed to the downside, it suggests volatility and
therefore demand is greater for puts than for calls and traders are
expecting the pair to fall; and visa versa.
We use risk reversals on USDJPY as global interest are bottoming after
having fallen substantially over the past year or more. Both the US and
Japanese benchmark lending rates are near zero and expected to remain
there until at least the middle of 2010. This attributes level of
stability to this pairs options that better allows it to follow
investment trends. When Risk Reversals move to a negative extreme, it
typically reflects a demand for safety of funds - an unfavorable
condition for carry. |
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How are Rate Expectations calculated:
Forecasting rate decisions is notoriously speculative, yet the market
is typically very efficient at predicting rate movements (and many
economists and analysts even believe market prices influence policy
decisions). To take advantage of the collective wisdom of the market in
forecasting rate decisions, we will use a combination of long and
short-term, risk-free interest rate assets to determine the cumulative
movement the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make over the coming
12 months. We have chosen the RBA as the Australian dollar is one of
few currencies, still considered a high yielders.
To read this chart, any positive number represents an expected firming
in the Australian benchmark lending rate over the coming year with each
point representing one basis point change. When rate expectations rise,
the carry differential is expected to increase and carry trades return
improves. |
Additional Information
What is a Carry Trade
All that is needed to understand the carry trade concept is a basic
knowledge of foreign exchange and interest rates differentials. Each
currency has a different interest rate attached to it determined partly
by policy authorities and partly by market demand. When taking a
foreign exchange position a trader holds long position one currency and
short position in another. Each day, the trader will collect the
interest on the long side of their trade and pay the interest on the
short side. If the interest rate on the purchased currency is higher
than that of the sold currency, the result is a net inflow of interest.
If the sold currency’s interest rate is greater than the purchased
currency’s rate, the trader must pay the net interest.
Carry Trade As A Strategy
For many years, money managers and banks have utilized the inflow and
outflow of yield to collect consistent income in times of low
volatility and high risk appetite. Holding only one or two currency
pairs would invite considerable idiosyncratic risk (or risk related to
those few pairs held); so traders create portfolios of various carry
trade pairs to diversify risk from any single pair and isolate exposure
to demand for yield. However, even with risk diversified away from any
one pair, a carry basket is still exposed to those conditions that
render this yield seeking strategy undesirable, such as: high
volatility, small interest rate differentials or a general aversion to
risk. Therefore, the carry trade will consistently collect an interest
income, but there are still situation when the carry trade can face
large drawdowns in certain market conditions. As such, a trader needs
to decide when it is time to underweight or overweight their carry
trade exposure.
Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com.
Questions? Comments? You can send them to John at jkicklighter@dailyfx.com.
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